UPDATE, midday Friday: Disney/Pixar’s Coco is looking at an opening day of $12.5 million (including last night’s $2.3M) as of this point per industry estimates, which is $2.6M less than what Moana chalked up a year ago. Right now, because it’s so early, both Coco and Warner Bros’ Justice League are in a battle for No. 1 overall at the domestic box office with an estimated $47M three-day and $68M five-day each. As we move along this week, it should settle down and separate the two.
Coco will beat Justice League today with the latter Zack Snyder movie making an estimated $10.5M, down 1% versus yesterday. If its projections hold, the DC superhero team-up will touch just under $180M. While we’ve been complaining about the film’s lackluster performance in regards to the DC franchise, exhibitors could care less about that: They’re rolling in concession cash, and the marketplace in the past three weeks has been a boom versus last summer’s doldrums.
Lionsgate’s Wonder is looking at $6M today, up 7% from Tuesday, with a current three-day outlook of $26.5M and five-day of $37.5M, heading toward $74.6M. The Stephen Chbosky-directed film will easily be Lionsgate’s best of 2017, topping John Wick: Chapter Two‘s $92M. On a three-day basis, Wonder is expected to ease 4% right now. Wow.
Disney/Marvel’s Thor: Ragnarok is looking at a $4M Wednesday, a three-day of $17.8M and five-day of $25M — still money out of Justice League‘s pocket. Running cume by Sunday looks to be $278.2M.
Other holders are as follows:
Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) $2.6M Wed, 3-day $13.5M and 5-day $19M, running cume by Sunday of $74.6M.
Daddy’s Home 2 (Par) $2.5M Wed, 3-day $13.5M and 5-day of $18M, running come by Sunday of $72M.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (FSL), 590 runs. $800,000 Wed, 3-day of $4.5M, 5-day of $6.2M. Total by Sunday of $7.96M.
Roman J. Israel, Esq (Sony), 1,648 runs. Looks like $800K today (including $175K from Tuesday night) for 3-day of $4.1M and 5-day of $5.7M. Total by Sunday of $5.8M.
Lady Bird (A24), 741 runs. $600K Wed, 3-day $3.4M and 5-day of $4.6M, Total by Sunday of $9.9M.
PREVIOUSLY, 8:26 AM: Disney/Pixar’s Coco began its Thanksgiving march on the box office last night with $2.3 million, with an eye on making $60M or more over the next five days.
Coco opens at a sensitive time for Disney. Just yesterday, Pixar boss John Lasseter said he was taking a six-month sabbatical amid allegations of inappropriate behavior. Still, that Hollywood insider scandal isn’t expected to rock Coco‘s prospects in the rest of the U.S. and Canada.
Coco‘s preview is just $300,ooo shy of Moana‘s $2.6M Tuesday preview a year ago. That pic racked up $15.5M on its first day. Coco is also far ahead of The Good Dinosaur, considered a bomb for Pixar with $1.3M previews ($9.76M Wednesday). Coco is also ahead of Disney’s uber hit Frozen, which made $1.2M on its first Tuesday ($15.1M Wednesday) during Thanksgiving week.
Coco in its Dia de los muertos story doesn’t have the Disney princess factor Moana possessed, which pushed down on Coco‘s projections prior to opening. But the film has a 95% certified fresh Rotten Tomatoes score, which could push its tickets sales higher; it’s just one point below Moana‘s RT rating. Moana grossed $56.6M in its first three days and $82M over five, making it the second-best Thanksgiving stretch debut after Frozen‘s $93.6M. Coco carries a reported production cost in the Pixar range which is typically between $175M-$200M before P&A, however, those in the animation world believe it’s much higher north of $225M.
The night before Thanksgiving is a notable one at the B.O. and Black Friday is even bigger. Today there are 74% kids off from K-12 and another 59% of colleges. That number moves up to 100% over the next two days.
Warner Bros/DC’s Justice League led all films in regular release with a big Tuesday of $10.6M, up 41% over Monday, for a running cume of $111.9M. The Zack Snyder-directed movie is expected to take in a gross similar to Coco‘s with $60M over the next five days. While critics have strangled Justice League with a 41% Rotten Tomatoes score, audiences are enjoying it with final PostTrak showing a 4-out-of-5-star response with males at 62% enjoying the movie with an 80% overall positive, and females at 38% giving it an 85% grade. Warners is hoping that more of those older female Wonder Woman fans come out, just like they did for her June solo outing: Females over 25 are giving Justice League its best grades at 90%, but they’re still in the minority among the pic’s headcount repping only 18% of the audience. Leading the charge are males under 35 (32%, 78% positive), males over 25 (30%, 81% positive), and women under 25 (20% at 81% positive). Justice League overall has a 65% definite recommend.
Lionsgate’s Wonder chalked up an estimated $5.6M yesterday, up 43% over Monday, for a five-day total of $37.1M. Many expect the Julia Roberts-Owen Wilson movie to be north of $64M by Sunday in its running domestic total.
Sony’s Roman J. Israel, Esq. expands from four to 1,648 today. Bleecker Street has the period piece The Man Who Invented Christmas in 500 houses, while Focus Features will open its Gary Oldman-as-Winston Churchill biopic Darkest Hour in four New York and Los Angeles theaters. Ditto on that count for Sony Pictures Classics’ Spirit Award-nom leading pic Call Me By Your Name.